Even though I am a registered Republican, I have written little about the Republican presidential primary. Actually there really isn't much to write. Republicans hold primaries (secret ballots) and award each state's convention delegates to the candidate who wins its primary. It is a winner take all system, so as soon as one candidate has amassed more than half the total delegate count, the suspense is over. And right now, John McCain will be the Republican nominee, unless something completely unforeseen and extraordinary happens.
This is not so in the Democratic party. The Democrats still use an old-fashioned and highly corruptible political machine to select their nominee.
In addition to modern secret ballot primaries, sixteen states or territories (including Guam and Puerto Rico, and including the split caucus/primary system of Texas) still use a caucus method of selecting convention delegates. Under this method, registered Democrats hold a public meeting and, by show-of-hand voting, breaking up into small groups, or other means of assembly, pledge themselves to their candidates. If a candidate quickly garners a large group of supporters, those supporters often persuade supporters of other candidates to join their caucus, thus ensuring that their candidate wins. Peer pressure and old-fashioned politicking lie at the heart of this delegate selection system.
And the Democrats have another group of convention delegates known as superdelegates, that participate in the nominee selection process. Superdelegates are not chosen by a caucus or primary. In contrast to ordinary convention delegates, who are citizen activists, superdelegates are usually elected officials, which ensures their loyalty to the leadership of the party, because no elected official wants to offend the party and lose its support during their next election. Superdelegates pledge themselves to particular candidates, but they can be pressured into changing their votes. This happened in 1984. Gary Hart and Walter Mondale emerged from the primary season virtually neck and neck, but Mondale, the party establishment candidate, succeeded in stealing a large portion of Hart's committed delegates as well as capturing virtually the entire bloc of superdelegates.
Bill Clinton is still the "don" of the Democrats, and his wife is "owed" the party nomination. She is the establishment candidate, and until the Iowa caucus, most observers believed that the party's other candidates were just in the race for show. But in Barak Obama, the electorate now has a viable alternative, and when given the choice between Hillary and an alternative, they are choosing the alternative in droves. Barak Obama has now garnered a simple majority of total primary votes cast. He is clearly the choice of voters.
After the 1984 Democratic convention, Jesse Jackson, who received 21% of the total votes cast in primary and caucus races, but was represented at the convention by only 8% of the party delegates, urged the party to reform its system. If another black man -- and particularly if this black man wins the majority of primary and caucus votes -- is stripped of fair representation by old fashioned rich white "good ol' boy" politics, then I predict that we will be entering a new era of American politics.
Already rumors are circulating about what could happen if Barak Obama wins the popular caucus and primary vote, but loses the party nomination. One particularly fascinating rumor says that New York mayor Michael Bloomberg will give Barak Obama $1 billion in order for him to run as an independent candidate. Of course the catch is that Obama will have to name Bloomberg as his running mate.
Perhaps twenty five years ago, an establishment candidate like Walter Mondale could have gotten away with stealing a party nomination. But today, and especially after the bitterness over the results of the 2000 presidential election, it seems to me that if Bill Clinton tries to steal the nomination for his wife by manipulating the convention delegates, he will be taking a huge risk -- one that could end up destroying the Democratic party.
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