Here are the numbers for the McCain-Palin post-convention "bounce", via Drudge:
GALLUP: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%...
GALLUP: McCain's Bounce Gives Him 5-Point Lead...
The LA Times is also reporting that "Palinmania" has caused a run on Kawasaki 704 eyeglasses frames and a renewed interest in retro upswept hairstyles, a la Audrey Hepburn. Personally I find this hard to believe, particularly since there was no apparent surge of interest in the Hair Club after Joe Biden's nomination.
Over at WizBang, DJ Drummond examined the "bounce" and notes that the underdog candidate usually receives the biggest convention bounce, but still goes on to lose the general election. Interesting.
Finally, am I alone in sensing a major shift in the Democratic party's expectations for this year's election? It seems like team Obama is still trying to find their berings after last week's triumphant Republican convention. I wonder if the Clintons have been waiting for some miraculous moment like this to arrive, so they can begin to put pressure on the Obama campaign from the left. I'm not saying that they are aiding McCain in any way; I'm just saying that McCain has damaged Obama to an extent that no one predicted, and the Clintons are taking that advantage and possibly working to weaken Obama even more.
Here's why they would do that -- an Obama win would put Obama in the race again in 2012. Hillary would have a better chance winning the Democrat nomination in 2016 than hijacking the nomination from Obama in 2012 (which could only happen if Obama turned out to be the worst president in history -- even Jimmy Carter was nominated again in 1980). So that leaves Hillary out in the cold until 2016. By that time she will be 69 years old, hardly a "new leader" or an agent of "change." But a McCain victory in 2008 changes that, because everyone assumes that 72 year old McCain will only serve one term, thus leaving the Republican ticket open for Sarah Palin in 2012. I believe that the Clintons feel that Hillary can win the nomination in 2012 (since Obama will be tainted as a "loser") and then defeat the much younger, "inexperienced" Sarah Palin in the 2012 general election.
I only see one problem with this theory. Hillary's supporters are pitting the Hillary of today with the Sarah Palin of today, but in a race that will take place four years from now. By that time, if MaCain and Palin win in November, she will have had four years experience as Vice President. She will be a far different -- and much tougher -- opponent then.
Comments