Some random thoughts about the happenings this week ... (Updates added as well)
First, two important words: disaster preparedness.
New Orleans apparently has no idea what disaster preparedness means. Examples:
- No plan to provide food, water, and medical care for the refugees at the Super dome. To lock up 10 to 20,000 people in a building and leave them there to die with virtually no assistance is unconscionable, and I hope somebody gets hung out to dry for it.
- No plan to provide law enforcement during the flood. The NOPD completely fell apart after the flood. In fact, there was no law enforcement in the entire city until the Louisiana National Guard arrived. This is inexcusable. Here's a link to the a Saturday Sept. 3 press conference
given by General Blum, commander of the Louisiana National Guard. Blum responded to charges that there was a "delay" in getting the
National Guard deployed in Louisiana as an MP force. Blum patiently explained that
the state government must request the presence of the Guard, and then
must authorize (essentially 'deputize') the Guard to perform law
enforcement. The Guard must then evaluate the situation in order to
determine the best response. And in Louisiana, it took a few days to
collect all the troops who had been evacuated from the storm area and
get them deployed. Blum stated:
You have to remember how this thing started. Before the hurricane
hit there were 5,000 National Guardsmen in Mississippi and 5,000
National Guardsmen—excuse me. Let me correct the record. There were
2,500 National Guardsmen in Mississippi and almost 4,000 National
Guardsmen in Louisiana that were sheltered and taken out of the
affected area so as soon as the storm passed they could immediately go
into the area and start their search and lifesaving work, and stand up
their command and control apparatus, and start standing up the vital
functions that would be required such as providing food, water, shelter
and security for the people of the town. So it was phased in. There was
no delay.
The real issue, particularly in New Orleans, is that no one
anticipated the disintegration or the erosion of the civilian police
force in New Orleans. Once that assessment was made, that the normal
1500 man police force in New Orleans was substantially degraded, which
contributed obviously to less police presence and less police
capability, then the requirement became obvious and that’s when we
started flowing military police into the theater.
- No plan to evacuate indigent citizens. New Orleans has a disproportionately high poor minority population, something like one third of the city. This is not a secret. It is also not a stretch to assume that these people would not be able to get out without assistance. Yet nothing was available for them. Whoever was responsible for this (the Mayor???) should face criminal charges:
- No plan to communicate with citizens or help them mobilize and survive after the flood. Again, inexcusable.
I say "no plan" because obviously nothing that went on in New Orleans after August 29 resembled a planned, organized response.
These are sobering observations, and a lot of people will dismiss them offhand because the answers to these problems are much more difficult than "blame Bush for everything!!!" But if we want to keep a Katrina-sized disaster from happening again, we need to make sure that none of these things is likely to occur the next time a major city gets wiped out by a hurricane.
Second, how does this disaster encourage any confidence whatsoever in the US Department of Homeland Security (ditto for FEMA) which was supposed to have put together a fantastic array of disaster contingency plans? If New Orleans had theirs, they certainly didn't follow it. And did I mention that Al Quaeda is surely taking a lot of notes right now?
Third, I've had it with the Bush-bashing crowd. Here is a brief refutation of all the Left's worthless talking points:
1) New Orleans has been flooded, people. FLOODED. Water has been rising since Tuesday. That means no roads, no phones, no electricity, no airport. No one, even with the best of intentions, could get in by land until Friday. Helicopters still have virtually nowhere to land or to drop their supplies. How smart is it to drop supplies into ten feet of water? It is the responsibility of the City of New Orleans to plan for these things ahead of time and have supplies and a distribution system ready before a disaster occurs. Just think about it, okay?
2) Consider the time line. Today is Saturday Sept. 3. The storm struck Monday Aug. 29. The consensus among EVERYONE Monday evening was that New Orleans had been spared. The levee breaks didn't occur until Tuesday. Federal troops were ordered in on Friday Sept. 2. Even if Federal troops had been ordered into NO on Tuesday, before the widespread looting and anarchy began, they would not have been able to arrive until Thursday or Friday. And if President Bush ordered armed federal troops into the town before the rioting, or had usurped the authority of the Louisiana governor and issued an order federalizing the Louisiana National Guard, he would have been accused of enacting an evil neo-con plan to use the military to suppress and kill minorities. Jesse Jackson would have called it "Selma all over again."
3) The Louisiana National Guard is under the control of Louisiana governor Kathleen Blanco, not President Bush. Only she can order the deployment of her National Guard troops. If you're mad because they weren't mobilized and in place when the storm hit, then blame her. Of course, if she had sent in the National Guard before the storm, she would have been accused of using military force to violate the civil rights of poor minorities. Also, only about 1/4 of the Louisiana National Guard is currently deployed overseas. And their "equipment" which is currently in Iraq (tanks, field artillery, armored bulldozers, armored personnel carriers) would be useless during a widespread flood.
4) The levee system in Louisiana has been under "redesign" and "re-evaluation" for forty years. If you're going to blame the President for the failure of the levee, then the list is pretty long - Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43. Also, the 17th Street Canal levee failed in an area which had just been reinforced (reported by the New York Times) and quite frankly, engineers are stunned that it failed. Funding requests for levee work were cut back by the Bush 43 administration, but also by the Clinton administration. Maybe this was why Bill Clinton was so quick to counter criticism of the Federal government's management of the levee system.
EURota has a nice collection of MSM quotes
from the 1990's which innumerate problems in flood control systems that
existed during the Clinton administration, as well as quotes from a NYT
piece from April of this year which refers to $17 billion dollars
earmarked for Army Corps of Engineers flood control projects as "pork"
and accuses the Corps of "routinely inflating the economic benefits of
its projects."
5) (Updated) And now there's this ... Read it all:
Behind the scenes, a power struggle emerged, as federal officials
tried to wrest authority from Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco
(D). Shortly before midnight Friday, the Bush administration sent
her a proposed legal memorandum asking her to request a federal
takeover of the evacuation of New Orleans, a source within the state’s
emergency operations center said Saturday.
The
administration sought unified control over all local police and state
National Guard units reporting to the governor. Louisiana officials
rejected the request after talks throughout the night, concerned that
such a move would be comparable to a federal declaration of martial law. (emphasis added)
And here's another WaPo article on problems with FEMA and disaster preparedness:
Other federal and state officials pointed to Louisiana's failure to
measure up to national disaster response standards, noting that the
federal plan advises state and local emergency managers not to expect
federal aid for 72 to 96 hours, and base their own preparedness efforts
on the need to be self-sufficient for at least that period.
"Fundamentally the first breakdown occurred at the local level," said
one state official who works with FEMA. "Did the city have the
situational awareness of what was going on within its borders? The
answer was no." (emphasis added)
Fourth, what will become of New Orleans?
The primary business of New Orleans is tourism. One of the reasons for the poor economic status of New Orleans is that it has very little to offer in the way of good paying jobs. Tourism-related jobs mostly consist of hourly jobs in the service industry (restaurants, hotels, museums, etc.). There is no way that the tourism industry, which will be shut down for months, possibly a year or more, can support the return of most of the city's population. This is going to be a big, big problem.
Then there is the problem of flooding. Outside of the historic French Quarter district, and other places of historic and academic interest, it makes little sense to rebuild the city in a location that has a 100% guarantee of being completely flooded again. I know enough about the insurance industry to know that they plan for catastrophic events. They have actuarial tables which compute the probability of events occurring and estimate how much they will cost. And a soon as a catastrophic event actually does occur, the probabilities of it occurring again in the near future rise dramatically. New Orleans could flood next year, or 50 years from now, or 200 years from now. But I would be stunned if insurance companies would cover any buildings (other than the exceptions that I mentioned above) that were built back in a location that was certain to flood again.
The majority of New Orleans' minority community is poor, and lived in aging, run-down housing. As much as I grieve for the citizens of the city of New Orleans and their loss of community, it just doesn't make sense to move that many impoverished people back to a city where they will probably have even less of a chance to financially recover. Building tens of thousands of units of Section 8 housing in a flood-prone region and moving hundreds of thousands of indigent residents into those housing units, with even less hope of finding good jobs than they had before, just seems cruel and insane. Also, residents who move away will have to re-establish themselves (housing, jobs, schools, etc.) in new communities if they want to survive. They can't wait months or years for New Orleans to be restored.
I have been thinking a lot lately about Galveston, Texas and how they survived the great hurricane of 1900. Most of Galveston's 6000 victims perished because the storm surge flooded the island. In response, Galveston built a seawall to break the storm surge, and pumped literally millions of cubic yards of slimy, smelly dredging sludge into the low portions of the island. After the sludge hardened, it raised the grade of the island to an elevation above sea level. Then, the island was built back. Will New Orleans try something similar when they attempt to build back at least some new neighborhoods and infrastructure?
Finally, the timeline for rebuilding is going to be lengthy. Pumping out the city could take months. And then there will be alligators, snakes, rats, mosquitoes, and huge amounts of mold, mildew, and fungus to deal with. Bulldozing dilapidated structures (houses, buildings, roadways, etc.) and hauling off the debris will take months more. Restoring the electrical, telephone, water, and sewer systems will take months. Cleaning, drying out, decontaminating, and restoring structures which survived the flood damage will take months, and this has to be done after the city is dry and after at least some of the infrastructure is restored. This is going to be a long, hard journey for everyone involved.
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